Frankfurt (Germany), July 25 (LaPresse) – “Respondents' expectations for overall inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Expectations were revised downward by 0.2 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026 compared to the previous survey (conducted in the second quarter of 2025), while they remained unchanged for 2027. Expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were slightly revised downward for 2026 and 2027. Long-term expectations for both overall and core HICP inflation remained unchanged at 2.0%,” the European Central Bank (ECB) said, based on the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2025.
“Respondents expected real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2025 and 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Compared to the previous survey, expectations were revised upward by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 but downward by 0.1 percentage points for 2026. Growth expectations for 2027 and the long term remained unchanged at 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively,” the ECB added.
Regarding the unemployment rate, “the projected path remained broadly unchanged. The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.3% in both 2025 and 2026, before declining to 6.2% in 2027, where it is expected to remain in the long term (expectations for 2027 were revised downward by 0.1 percentage points).”